-
The large spec funds are net long, they want prices to
go up.
-
The fund managers talk to wire service reporters,
Cargill & ADM rarely do.
-
If there is a science more inexact than economics, it's
meteorology.
-
With inexactness in meteorology come multiple variants
of forecasts.
-
With multiple forecasts, emphasis drives trading.
Emphasis is controlled by the news services and the wire service reporters. See
#2.
-
You can't have a drought if it keeps raining
-
What you see out your back door represents less than 1
millionth of the crop.
-
Maintain perspective. Look at the Special Research
Reports for reasonable price objectives that can be met in almost all years.
-
Always sell something if Special Research Reports
objectives are reached.
-
Sell a
LOT
if #9 is met, and we are also at major monthly chart resistance.
-
Don't buy puts or calls outright at the highest implied
volatilities (premiums) of the year. Sell something against your main position
to offset the excess time premium.
-
Bulls win some, bears win some, pigs get slaughtered.
-
It's better to have 50% of something good than none of
something great.
-
Yield losses are deducted from optimal, not from
average or trend line. Some losses occur due to weather every year. Don't deduct
twice for the same impact.
-
The news is always the most bullish at the top. Corollary: If you trade the news, you lose.
